Welcome to Balls in the Air, where I size up my Fantasy Golf picks of the week, featuring guys to watch (or not) and interesting story lines. Disclaimer: Don’t yell at me if my picks suck.

First of all, I’d like to take a second to give myself a big-freaking-high-five for posting this before the tournament started. (I know, finally.)

/HI-5!

Okay, I feel so much better about myself after that. Hoo-ray. Because you all care, I’m sure. Moving on to the picks!

Group A

Phil Mickelson: The defending champ needs to step up after a crappy showing on the West Coast swing. You gotta figure he’s found a new putting stroke by now (though not sure what was wrong with the one from the end of last season). It’s time to get hot, Phil — apparently Tiger is coming back soon, so the time is winding down to move closer to that number-one spot.

Group A Bencher

Steve Stricker: Safe pick…for every week. He’s a fantastic alternate to fill in for a potential no-show Phil. Hell, it would probably be smarter to have Phil on the bench. Stricks surpassed him as the number two in the world rankings after he won the Northern Trust Open. He’s placed in the top-10 in three for three starts.

Group B

Camilo Villegas: Uh, heard he’s playing pretty well on the course in between his job as the ambassador of Colombia. Apparently he has a lot of fans out in Miami (se habla Espanol). I’m told when he came second to Tiger in 2006, he overshadowed him (yes, seriously!). But he’s had more rest and not sleeping in his own bed this week, so might be a gamble.

Jim Furyk: My friend Kevin reminded me that Furyk has an excellent record at Doral (T2 in ‘08 and 3 in ‘09). He also advised me to take Furyk over Rory McIlroy, so if Furyk shoots, like, 76 every day, then I’m taking a hit out on him.

Group B Benchers

Rory McIlroy: The 20-year-old from Northern Ireland will be the first to share cover time with Tiger on Tiger Woods PGA Tour ‘11. He picked up some tips from Jack Nicklaus at lunch last week because he’s eager to learn. And he’s been playing Doral since he was, like, nine.

Geoff Ogilvy: He hasn’t done anything spectacular since he won the season-opening SBS Championship. (Maybe the new baby is keeping him up?) But he sure loves World Golf Championship events with three wins tucked away.

Group C

Paul Casey: Three top-10s in three starts. When asked what he’d say to Tiger on the first tee, he replied, “Nike 1, blue dot. I don’t know, what do you say?” Exactly.

Group C Bencher

Ian Poulter: He won the WGC Match Play Championship. Enough said.

Well, that’s all. Great field this week. For the record, I wanted to pick Alvaros Quiros to shake things up — the dude is fun to watch and hits the ball so far he almost makes J.B. Holmes look like Tim Clark. But I guess I’m laying up while wearing orange pants.

EA Sports revealed that 20-year-old Rory McIlroy will share the cover with Tiger on Tiger Woods PGA Tour ‘11. The company is rolling out its new version of the game, featuring a Ryder Cup team format because it’s a match year. Apparently the inclusion of McIlroy, who hails from Northern Ireland, is to represent the European side. McIlroy, who has yet to play in a Ryder Cup, has been dubbed Boy That Will Save The PGA Tour, so clearly he was the logical choice.

But some might think the move has something to do with — oh, I don’t know — Tiger’s extracurricular activities. Of course, EA Sports, which has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to the troubled golfer, says otherwise via ESPN’s Jon Robinson:

[T]his truly was decided last October before all the events. That’s when we thought about the Ryder Cup and adding somebody else on the cover. It had never been done and we wanted to focus everybody on the team aspect of the game. That’s what we wanted to do regardless of anything else going on.

Mmmhmm. That’s what they all say.

Meanwhile, speaking from the site of this week’s World Golf Championship at Doral, McIlroy makes some generic comments about Tiger’s anticipated return:

It’s certainly going to be interesting to see not just how he plays but just how he handles the whole situation. But yeah, I think everyone is excited to see him just get back out on to the golf course and play golf. And from the reports I’ve heard, he seems to be swinging it well and as good as he ever was. It will be exciting the next few weeks, whenever he comes back, I know a lot of people are saying Tavistock or Bay Hill. It would be nice to see him back.

And it’ll be nicer when those dreaded questions don’t have to be asked or answered anymore.

Welcome to Balls in the Air, where I size up my Fantasy Golf picks of the week, featuring guys to watch (or not) and interesting story lines. Disclaimer: Don’t yell at me if my picks suck.

I swear I’m going to get better at posting this on a weekly (and more timely) basis, but mostly it’s because I haven’t come up with lyrics for a “Balls in the Air” theme song. Submissions are welcome.

Group A

Anthony Kim: Aside from the third round 76 at the Phoenix Open, Mr. Shiny Belt Buckle had a great tournament. No word whether he was hitting it hard at the Bird’s Nest on Friday night. Oh, and this is good — he’s paired with Robert Allenby the first two rounds. Fight, fight, fight!

Group A Bencher

Ernie Els: The options were slim, so it was either the Big Easy or someone like Steve Marino. Ernie is off to a quick start with two top-10 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and Northern Trust Open. Even though his three-year campaign to challenge Tiger Woods as the world’s number one has expired, maybe it comes with a one-year extension plan.

Group B

Rory McIlroy: Gotta love this kid. More important, he wouldn’t have laid up from 231 yards on a par 5 when he was in contention. At least I hope not.

Camilo Villegas: The flashy Colombian has been playing very well. In two starts, he finished third at the Match Play Championship and T8 at last week’s Phoenix Open, including a 9-under 62 in the first round. After complaining last year about the oh-so-grueling year-long golf schedule, he talked about his overall improvement in attitude and appreciation for the opportunity to play. They grow up so quickly!

Group B Benchers

Y.E. Yang: The defending champ is always a safe pick. He also played well last week despite a mental error, where he dunked it in the water, on the 17th hole last Sunday. But last night on Twitter, he mentioned having back pain. Not a good sign and something went wrong today — he shot (gulp) 79.

J.B. Holmes: I have a soft spot for the slow-moving long hitter after speaking with him last week at the Phoenix Open. Really nice guy. He’s also started the year hot with a runner-up finish at the A&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and third at the Northern Trust Open.

Group C

Paul Casey: In two starts, he finished runner-up at the Match Play Championship after losing to Ian Poulter in the finals, and T10 at the SBS Championship. Another safe pick. (Honestly, I’m ashamed how boring I’m getting.)

Group C Bencher

Rickie Fowler: I’m still kinda appalled with his gutless play coming down the stretch. John Hawkins summed it up very well, “Hey dude, did it ever cross your mind that you could make an eagle? You’re Rickie Freakin’ Fowler, the New Kid in Town, the second coming of Lanny…You believe, Rickie, because that’s what champions do. Better safe than sorry? Sometimes, they mean the same thing.” Lucky for him he’ll have another chance sooner than later — can’t discredit him for being able to play. As he heads into the Florida swing, it’ll be interesting to see how he does when not on familiar territory.

Alright, leaderboard check! The soft-spoken Australian, Nathan Green, leads with an early 5-under. Some guys called Alexandre Rocha and Michael Connell are tied for second along with Oliver Wilson and Villegas. Watching the telecast, looks like tough conditions with the wind blowing hard.

Someone else to keep an eye on is rookie Alex Prugh. He’s placed in the top-ten three times and made five cuts in five starts. After a few off-weeks, he’s in the clubhouse with a 68 and T10.

I realize I sound like a broken record this week with some of my picks — you know, so-and-so is playing well, which was annoying because it seemed like I have nothing more interesting to say. But if you’ve discovered a formula that doesn’t involve looking at the players’ current season results and their past performance at that tournament or simply going with your gut, then please share. Maybe next week I’ll get a little crazy and point my finger at the screen with my eyes closed and see which name it lands on.

At least Villegas is making me look smart.

Tiger Woods hasn’t even taken the podium to read his soliloquy, but he’s already stolen the stage. Everybody is talking about Tiger rather than the actual golf that’s being played. That was the point, though.

As you know, the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship started yesterday and Team Tiger’s announcement came shortly after the coverage began. Most important, Accenture was the first company to break up with Tiger. So, naturally, he’s mad. And what better way to screw the sponsor than to overshadow the global golf gathering it hosts? At the same he’s taking attention away from the guys — who haven’t wronged him — actually playing golf.

Ernie Els sure thinks so:

“It’s selfish. You can write that. I feel sorry for the sponsor. Mondays are a good day to make statements, not Friday. This takes a lot away from the golf tournament.”

Big high-five to the 20-year-old Rory McIlroy for his candor:

“He’s got to come out at some point. I suppose he might want to get something back against the sponsor that dropped him.”

But apparently Accenture is taking the high road. Jason Sobel chatted with Fred Hawrysh, an Accenture spokesperson:

“We got a call from Tiger’s agent [Mark Steinberg] prior to the announcement yesterday, so we had a heads up that they were going to make the announcement and they told us they were timing it for Friday — for whatever reason, it was important to go out this week. But they were timing it at 11 a.m. ET and we don’t tee off here until noon local time. They told us they deliberately timed this so it would not overlap with anything that was happening here.”

And I’m the Queen of England.

Unless Tiger is playing at next week’s Waste Management Open, then it could have waited until Monday. And it’s doubtful his first tournament would be at an event where the beer flows freely and fans behave crudely. Plus, 2001 was the last time he played in Phoenix.

But hey, as one golf writer pointed out, at least he didn’t choose to make his announcement the day after the Haiti quake.

After announcing on Monday the lockdown of a title sponsor for next week’s tournament, which will now be called the Farmers Insurance Open, the PGA Tour started Tuesday with more good news — the addition of a Fall Series event, the RSM McGladery Open hosted by Davis Love III.

In Tuesday’s teleconference, Commissioner Tim Finchem kicked off the call with cheery, upbeat adjectives about the announcement, like “delighted,” “excited” and “quality.” Because we know how fired up everyone gets about golf in October (notwithstanding the Ryder Cup).

But given the dreary economy these days, it appears the Tour is recovering rather nicely:

We are done. We have a full schedule. The upshot of that schedule is that the total playing opportunities for our players are consistent with the last couple years. Our prize money this year will be up slightly over 2009, and based on these announcements and also the final performance we’re seeing in our first-quarter events, we see our charity numbers now rebounding back into that $116 [million], $118 [million] area for 2010.

To my understanding, the moderator politely requested reporters to ask McGladery-related questions only. Translation: Do not cross-examine Finchem about Tiger and/or his whereabouts.

One clever individual found a legitimate loophole:

Q. Tim, there have been a lot of kind of doom-and-gloom articles, media coverage, about with Tiger away, TV ratings are going to take a big hit, and that that’s — I was just wondering if you might be able to explain why that’s kind of a short-sighted view.

And the long-winded response:

COMMISSIONER TIM FINCHEM: Well, I’ve answered this question before, but I think that there’s a misperception about our business model for one thing. People think because Tiger spikes ratings, which he does, and spikes interest, which he certainly does, that if he’s not playing, it just doesn’t work. And I’ve actually been answering the same question not since November but really for the last 13 years, because we’ve averaged about 47 tournaments a year on the PGA TOUR. In those years Tiger has averaged playing about 17. That leaves 30 events. And those events have grown in the last 13 years exponentially. They’ve actually grown at a higher percentage basis than the events that Tiger basically plays in.

[…Blah, blah, blah, yada, yada, yada…]

TV ratings dropped 50% from ‘08 in ‘07 in the tournaments Tiger missed while recovering from knee surgery.

But week in and week out, the PGA TOUR provides value, and as C.E. [Andrews, McGladery’s CEO,] indicated earlier, in this case we’ve got a great venue, a great group of players involved already, a great golf course, a great time of year to play. If you’re smart, you can put together a tournament that really generates value for all the stakeholders. And that’s been our experience.

Uhh…again, golf in October. And I love Davis Love, and Zach Johnson seems like a good guy, but compared to watching Tiger or Phil? Yeah, b-o-r-i-n-g.

We just had Tiger out for eight months in ‘08, and we had our all-time record charity year at $125 million. Everybody just needs to keep it in balance. We want our No. 1 player back. I think he’s going to be huge when he comes back. But he’s doing the right thing right now in dealing with his issues as he said he wanted to.

So, does that mean you know how he’s dealing with them? Wait, what happened to those TV ratings again? And also that was before the economy really went kapooey.

But hey, I get it — it’s the Commissioner’s job to play down the likely financial effects. With such conviction, too! The Tour might encounter more trouble in the long term if he really believes the status quo will indefinitely suffice, though. Especially since marquee players competing overseas for appearance fees in lieu of Tour events appears to be a growing trend. Anthony Kim opens his 2010 season at the Abu Dhabi Championship this week instead of the Bob Hope Classic.

Perhaps Finchem is banking on Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler to reach their potential right away. Or AK will hate the Middle East and defer a million bucks going forward. Or Tiger and Phil will start playing 25 tournaments a year. Or Tiger will return by the spring. All possible scenarios. Still, there’s enough doubt to cast more concern than Finchem wants — or is willing — to openly disclose.

I was reminded how much I love The Masters when the field was announced on Friday. Three months still stand between now and April, but I can’t wait. After all, it’s the first major of the year (“a tradition like no other!”) and some consider it the “official” start of the golf season. I tend to get pretty sappy about the tournament, so that’s something else to look forward to.

Currently, 91 players have earned spots to compete for the Green Jacket, including 16 newcomers and six amateurs. 49 of them originally hail from countries outside of the United States. Invitations will also be given to players who win a full-field PGA Tour event and finish in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings the week before the Masters.

Notable tournament newbies include:

Simon Dyson (England), Nathan Green (Australia), Yuta Ikeda (Japan), Francesco Molinari and Nationwide Tour player of the year Michael Sim…

U.S. Amateur champ Byeong-Hun An of Korea, U.S. Amateur runner-up Ben Martin, U.S. Amateur Public Links champ Brad Benjamin, British Amateur champ Matteo Manassero, Open Championship low amateur Chris Wood and Han Chang-won of Korea, who won the inaugural Asian Amateur Championship…

Seventeen-year-old Han’s invitation was unprecedented and an encouraging acknowledgment of the growing Asian factor in professional golf. (Watch out!)

With Han, An, Wood, Rory McIlroy and Ryo Ishikawa in the field, it looks like there will be a fair amount of youthful talent displayed at Augusta this year. Now Rickie Fowler just needs to find a way to qualify — which means playing his way to the winner’s circle, like soon.

And obviously, Tiger received an invitation, but whether he’ll play is still TBD — but I’d be shocked if he didn’t and most expect him to return, especially since the controlled, stuffy atmosphere will curb the inevitable heckling from fans.

For the list of invitees to date, go to Geoff Shackelford.

[Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images]

After weeks of speculation and conflicting reports about his plans, Rory McIlroy, 20-year-old Irish Phenom Destined To Be The Next Tiger Woods, has (finally) made up his mind. On Tuesday in Hong Kong he confirmed that he has joined the PGA Tour (hooray):

I want to become a better player and the best way to develop my game is to be playing more in the States and playing a worldwide schedule. I just feel that I will become a better golfer if I also play in America. I will be playing in world class fields with more world ranking points on offer. The only way for me to get better is to play alongside better players…

Translation: Sorry, European Tour, the competition and the money ain’t cutting it, so I’m moving on to play with the big boys who will actually challenge me and bring my game (and pockets) to the next level. Ouch.

But he also emphasized that he’ll structure his schedule to play on both sides of the pond, like fellow Irishman Padraig Harrington, the number-six ranked player in the world:

My decision is not that much of a big deal…The European Tour is still my home tour. I don’t want anyone to get the wrong idea that I am just going away to America because that is not what I am planning.

Yeah, that’s what they all say. Check back with him in twelve months after he’s received the PGA Tour’s first-rate hospitality treatment.

[Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images]

Because the HSBC Champions is taking place in Shanghai, China, this week, here’s a special male edition of Know Your Asians.

• Born and raised in Taiwan, he’s 35 years old
• He comes from a big golfing family — his father and uncle were both pros and his two brothers also play on the Asian Tour
• He’s been a member of the Asian Tour since 1998 and plays on the European Tour occasionally
• He recorded his first professional win at the 1998 Hsin Fong Open in his home land
• He has five victories on the Asian Tour and one on the European Tour
• In November 2008 he walked away with the biggest win of his career at the USB Hong Kong Open, a European Tour co-sanctioned event, besting teen phenom Rory McIlroy and Francisco Molinari in a playoff
• With that victory, he secured a two-year exemption on the European Tour
• He speaks (broken) English well enough to do interpreter-free interviews

Highlights from this week:

• Midway through the second round, he held the lead, but faltered on the back nine to drop back to T10 at the end of the day
• He was pumped to shoot 67, 5-under in the first round (same as Tiger!): I had a very good score today. Because I know this tournament, the superstar, many, many, so I told my caddie, we have the local player, but enjoy the tournament. So today, very good crowd and very good second shot.
• A chat with Scott Strange on the driving range has inspired him to compete more on the European Tour next year: Yes, because I just spoke to Scott Strange, he said this year why not try the European. Because you know, my English is not good, so because when people go to European — because my wife stay with me. But I know European now is many, many good players, so my wife told me maybe to try next year.

Asian-ness Scale (1-10, 1: Tiger Woods, totally Americanized; 5: Y.E. Yang, somewhat assimilated; 10: Zhang Lian-Wei, 中國): Lin Wen-tang = 7.5

[Photo by Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images AsiaPac]

Apparently, Chubby Chandler, Rory McIlroy’s manager, needs to work on communicating better with his client. About two weeks ago, the UK’s Daily Mail reported Rory would announce his intention to join the PGA Tour next season, which was confirmed by comments from Chandler. Then, last week, SportsBusiness Journal received an email from Chandler to tell them otherwise. Befuddling…on several levels. First, why did Chandler pass the info to the SBJ rather than a UK publication? Strange. Second, why the sudden change?

All of this was news to Rory. A scribe (no byline) from the Belfast Telegraph actually spoke to him personally to confirm the latest report. After a practice round for the Volvo World Match Play, Rory spilled to what is probably his hometown paper:

That’s not correct. I’m still thinking about it. I love playing in America. I play well over there and I am still thinking about taking out my PGA Tour card next year...[I] love playing over here but I love playing the States as well, because it really suits my game. Why am I waiting? Just to think about it. Just to mull it over. It is a big decision and it is going to mean more time away from home, which is a big factor.

He sure does play well here — he placed in the top-ten at two majors, a T10 at the US Open and 3rd at the PGA Championship. (+1 point for the PGA Tour!)

Remember, he’s 20, he wants to stay close to his family, and more important his girlfriend. (-2 points for the PGA Tour!)

[h/t Geoff Shackelford]

[Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images Europe]

We saw impressive performances by two up-and-comers last week — Rickie Fowler and Jamie Lovemark. Both found themselves in a three-way playoff with Troy Matteson. While Matteson won on the second playoff hole, there’s still something to be said about Fowler’s and Lovemark’s outstanding play.

Now I’m not going to do the whole “They’re the next big things!” (Though admittedly I’ve gone that route a bit in the past.) Frankly, it’s silly and overrated. The Golf Channel commentators have made no secret of their man-crush on Fowler with their nonstop chatter about his star quality. But I thought it was absolutely absurd when they tried to compare Fowler to Tiger. (It was probably better than their mention of his resemblance to Leonardo DiCaprio, though that was stupidly entertaining, especially when they did the split screen of the two.)

The golf world is always pondering over when we’ll discover someone who can rival Tiger’s greatness, but let’s be real — we won’t see that…ever — so long as he’s still competing. But, I find it refreshing to watch these young players perform well, particularly if it’s consistent.

Take Fowler, for example. In his first two starts as a professional he already has two top-10 finishes, not to mention they came in back-to-back weeks. He’s even played well enough to put himself at 135th place ($553,700) on the money list (!), which has gained him some special status for the rest of the season and to sidestep the first and possibly second stages of Q-school. Sure, it’s the Fall Series and the so-called marquee players (Tiger, Phil, etc.) aren’t in the field, but there were still some major champions and top-ranked guys. Plus, Fowler has put up good performances right out of the gate. From what I’ve seen, he seems to have a solid attitude and mentality, the kind where it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to win soon. In a brisk period, he’s shown he can handle the pressure and intensity competing against the big boys on the PGA Tour.

Now I’m positive about one thing — guys like Fowler, Lovemark, Rory McIlroy and Ryo Ishikawa are fun to watch — they bring a new level of excitement, one that makes us glued to our televisions like it did on Sunday. But, we’ve seen the dangers of ordaining budding young players as the real deal, only to cast some disappointment on our high expectations.

Just ask Adam Scott.

[Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images]