Welcome to Balls in the Air, where I size up my Fantasy Golf picks of the week, featuring guys to watch (or not) and interesting story lines. Disclaimer: Don’t yell at me if my picks suck.

First of all, I’d like to take a second to give myself a big-freaking-high-five for posting this before the tournament started. (I know, finally.)

/HI-5!

Okay, I feel so much better about myself after that. Hoo-ray. Because you all care, I’m sure. Moving on to the picks!

Group A

Phil Mickelson: The defending champ needs to step up after a crappy showing on the West Coast swing. You gotta figure he’s found a new putting stroke by now (though not sure what was wrong with the one from the end of last season). It’s time to get hot, Phil — apparently Tiger is coming back soon, so the time is winding down to move closer to that number-one spot.

Group A Bencher

Steve Stricker: Safe pick…for every week. He’s a fantastic alternate to fill in for a potential no-show Phil. Hell, it would probably be smarter to have Phil on the bench. Stricks surpassed him as the number two in the world rankings after he won the Northern Trust Open. He’s placed in the top-10 in three for three starts.

Group B

Camilo Villegas: Uh, heard he’s playing pretty well on the course in between his job as the ambassador of Colombia. Apparently he has a lot of fans out in Miami (se habla Espanol). I’m told when he came second to Tiger in 2006, he overshadowed him (yes, seriously!). But he’s had more rest and not sleeping in his own bed this week, so might be a gamble.

Jim Furyk: My friend Kevin reminded me that Furyk has an excellent record at Doral (T2 in ‘08 and 3 in ‘09). He also advised me to take Furyk over Rory McIlroy, so if Furyk shoots, like, 76 every day, then I’m taking a hit out on him.

Group B Benchers

Rory McIlroy: The 20-year-old from Northern Ireland will be the first to share cover time with Tiger on Tiger Woods PGA Tour ‘11. He picked up some tips from Jack Nicklaus at lunch last week because he’s eager to learn. And he’s been playing Doral since he was, like, nine.

Geoff Ogilvy: He hasn’t done anything spectacular since he won the season-opening SBS Championship. (Maybe the new baby is keeping him up?) But he sure loves World Golf Championship events with three wins tucked away.

Group C

Paul Casey: Three top-10s in three starts. When asked what he’d say to Tiger on the first tee, he replied, “Nike 1, blue dot. I don’t know, what do you say?” Exactly.

Group C Bencher

Ian Poulter: He won the WGC Match Play Championship. Enough said.

Well, that’s all. Great field this week. For the record, I wanted to pick Alvaros Quiros to shake things up — the dude is fun to watch and hits the ball so far he almost makes J.B. Holmes look like Tim Clark. But I guess I’m laying up while wearing orange pants.

First things first: Apologies for the small font in the images of the brackets below, but I run a resource-starved operation. That said, I welcome donations.

As you may have heard, the Accenture Match Play starts today and neither the world’s number one, Tiger Woods, nor number three, Phil Mickelson, is in the field. Naturally, Tiger is hunkered down in some hiding hole, otherwise known as the gated community of Isleworth, and Phil, the quintessential family man, is taking a family vacation. This event stirred up huge hype last year, as Tiger staged his comeback after an eight-month break to recover from knee surgery.

It’s a little different this year, but hey, we got Steve Stricker, Lee Westwood, Jim Furyk and Martin Kaymer to take the top four seeds. Personally, I’m pumped because I love matchplay. I wish more PGA Tour events were played in this format, like the silly the FedEx Cup — or at least the final event. It’s exciting to watch two players battle it out in a one-on-one duel. Well, unless you get, like, Chad Campbell and Ben Crane in the finals. Snore. So, let’s hope that anomaly doesn’t happen this week.

Without further ado, presenting my random bracket picks, where I basically went down the list and went, eeny-meeny-miny-moe. But as you can see, I didn’t go too crazy. I guess I was feeling boring.

JONES BRACKET

I love this bracket. Too many great players. As I learned with my Fantasy Golf picks for the Northern Trust Open, Steve Stricker is always a safe bet. And I’d just really like to see him cry again. I’m sure David Feherty could rouse more tears from Stricks than Roger Maltbie could. But I’d love to see the young dudes, Anthony Kim and Ryo Ishikawa, go far. With the way both have played this season, I’m not sure. Then again, like the annoying cliche goes, anything can happen.

PLAYER BRACKET

Geoff Ogilvy is defending and he’s already repeated once this year with his win at the season-opener, the SBS Championship. He also has a mind-blowing 89.4% winning percentage. But he might be a little distracted and sleep-deprived, since his wife just gave birth to their third child last week. Putting aside my personal bias, I’d keep an eye out on Ryan Moore. He doesn’t hold one of the most decorated amateur careers for no reason. His last summer before turning pro, he won the US Amatuer, the Western Amateur and US Amateur Public Links — all in matchplay. He’s done crazy things, like win the last four holes, carding birdies on three, to win the US Amateur two-up. Expect him to feel comfortable in this atmosphere.

HOGAN BRACKET

It’d be great to see The Irish Kid Who Will Save The PGA Tour, you know, win or something, but apparently he’s been having some back problems. Perhaps worrisome, but he’s only 20. Last year he made a splash by making it to the quarterfinals, where he was ousted by eventual champ Ogilvy. If Allenby and McIlroy meet like I predicted, let’s hope Allenby doesn’t blame it on something silly, like how he should have gone out partying with him until 4AM. I’d like to see the 25-year-old Martin Kaymer, who won his fifth European Tour event in Abu Dhabi recently, matched up with McIlroy in the quarterfinals. Because, well, the entertainment value. Duh.

SNEAD BRACKET

Other than the Molinaris, who are the first brothers to play the event in the same year, and the preposterously long-hitting Alvaros Quiros, this bracket is pretty vanilla. But you got your usual suspects. Now I can’t remember why I chose Furyk. The word “safe” comes to mind, which doesn’t make that much sense now because in recent years he’s faltered when he reached the Sweet 16.

So in the Final Four, I have Stricker, McIlroy, Moore and Furyk. As always, my sincere regrets if they’re hit with the awful Wei jinx. Who are your favorites for the week? You know what to do — drop them below. Please.

Welcome to Balls in the Air, where I size up my Fantasy Golf picks of the week, featuring guys to watch (or not) and interesting story lines. I just started playing a few weeks ago, because, well, I really enjoyed Fantasy Football last year. Disclaimer: Don’t yell at me if my picks suck.

I know the tournament has already started and I believe the deadline was sometime on Wednesday. Going forward, I’ll have my picks posted earlier. FYI, I picked last week’s winner, Steve Stricker. /big high-freaking-five! And I just jinxed myself. My apologies to Luke Donald.

Group A

Luke Donald: The options were slim, but I went with Donald. He was runner-up at last week’s Northern Trust Open. He tied the course record at Spyglass with a 62 at this tournament in 2007.

Group A Bench Dude

Phil Mickelson: I was hesitant to pick FIGJAM, but like I said, it was slim pickings. Plus, I’m playing to win, so I’m doing my best to put my personal feelings aside. Phil has had two relatively disappointing weeks, but you never know when he’ll get hot. Hopefully he found his putting stroke, or got a new one since Sunday.

Group B

Jim Furyk: Safe pick. Plus, I played a few holes with him at Pebble on a simulator back in November at a Johnnie Walker junket. He knew the course very well and made two birdies in the three holes we played. Oh, Furyk also has a strong record at Pebble.

Dustin Johnson: The defending champ is always a good bet. He’s off to a decent start this season, too. He was the 36-hole leader at the Northern Trust Open and finished T3.

Group B Bench Dudes

Alex Prugh: This rookie has stayed under the radar and hype, but has actually been playing the best. He has three consecutive top-10 finishes. He’s also a fellow Washington State native. Hoping he plays well and is up for an interview after his round…stay tuned. (If you have any question suggestions, drop them below.)

Retief Goosen: In two starts on the PGA Tour, he’s placed fourth and T6. At the Qatar Masters he earned another top-10 finish. GOOSE!

Group C

Mike Weir: Last year he was runner-up at this event. He was cut last week, but finished sixth at the Bob Hope Classic, the other tournament where celebs run rampant.

Group C Bench Dude

Brandt Snedeker: Two top-10 finishes in 2010, including runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open.

OK, I’ll do a better job next week. Time to watch the always enlightening coverage on the Golf Channel. I also might be dropping in comments to Mike Walker who is live-blogging the tournament over at Golf.com’s Press Tent.

/checking leaderboard

K.J. Choi is leading at 6-under through 11 holes. David “Mock Turtleneck” Duval is off to a good start at 5-under through 12 — now let’s see if he can keep it up for four rounds, or hell, even two. And what is this? John Daly is three-under through seven!

So who are your favorites for the week? Drop them below.

*Update: Because several people asked if “Balls in the Air” was my remix to “Pants on the Ground,” here’s this:

So, clearly this weekend I’ll be thinking up lyrics for a “Balls in the Air” song.

On Friday RadarOnline reported Tiger Woods has left rehab. Apparently his wife, Elin Nordegren, picked him up at Gentle Grove in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, and they left together to spend some quality time alone as they attempt to repair their marriage. Multiple unnamed sources also told Radar that Tiger is determined to return to the PGA Tour.

So when will that be?

Australia’s Herald Sun published a dubious, unsubstantiated report on Thursday, claiming Tiger is set to stage his “shock return [in two weeks] at the Accenture Match Play Championship in Arizona.” The only source cited is “strengthening whispers.” Instead the writer framed a tenuous argument for the timing of Tiger’s return:

It is also a favourite event for Woods, who has won it in 2003, 2004 and 2008.

With Tiger’s eye doubtless still on his quest for majors’ history, it’s safe to assume he will not turn up cold at Augusta and give up a chance to close on Jack Nicklaus’s record of 18.

Accenture was among the first sponsors to ditch Woods when all hell broke loose in November, but other elements of his impending return line up.

As a matchplay event, it’s more for the purists than perhaps a “regular” tour event would be, diminishing his chances of being harassed.

Similarly, if he was to play badly in round one, he could “disappear” again rather than sit in the glare of the media spotlight until the mid-tournament cut.

Uh, yeah. I call BS. I’m forced to believe the paper published the story to sell papers, which makes them the latest to capitalize on Tiger’s sex scandal. First off, Accenture just dropped Tiger, so unless he’s trying to make good with the company, why would he bring publicity (and money) to the event? Plus, it wouldn’t leave much time to work on recovering from his so-called addiction and mending things with his family. Coming back in two weeks would discredit the sincerity of his vow to being a “better person.”

Good thing is that most media outlets were just as skeptical of the report.  A source close to Tiger told FoxSports.com, “As far as I know (Woods’ return) will not be at the Match Play.”

Meanwhile, a PGA Tour spokesperson called it “speculation.”

Tiger’s caddie, Steve Williams, informed the NZ Herald News, “All that I will say is the story circulating out of a Melbourne newspaper has no fabric to it at all,” but refused to comment on when his boss would return to the links.

Nobody knows. Tiger might not even know. But the conventional wisdom has marked The Masters.

First, let’s go to Jim Furyk:

I’d bet we’d see him at Augusta. Tiger hasn’t come out and made any real public statements, so it’s hard to figure out. Everyone is guessing it will be Augusta. Whether he comes out earlier, or there, I have no idea.

Next up, Geoff Ogilvy:

The least amount of circus he could face would be if he went to Augusta first, as that would be the most controlled environment he could be in. But then if he truly wants to win at Augusta he’s going to want to play before then.

Here’s Mike Weir:

I suspect he’ll be back - just my guess - I think he’ll be back for the Masters. I’m hoping he’s back for the majors. They’re at such great venues this year, courses he’s obviously done very well on.

Most recently, Sir Nick Faldo chimed in:

There’s still two months until the Masters and I would have thought that would be a good place to sneak in early. He could have a week’s preparation away from everybody, and obviously Augusta is the most secure event and he’d have a relatively free run.

My guess? Definitely not the Accenture Match Play event. If he returns this year, Arnold Palmer’s tournament at Bay Hill seems to be the logical choice. Like Ogilvy said, Tiger will probably want a warm-up before The Masters. But the longer he stays away from the game, the less likely we’ll see him back on the fairways in 2010. Which makes us miss him all the more.

While we don’t look forward to the media circus at his first tournament, he can silence much of the negative chatter with a strong performance and a good attitude. Perhaps that’s wishful thinking. But I’d just like him to come out of hiding and play some golf — of course only when he’s properly recovered from being an asshole his sex addiction.

[Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images]

It’s nearly impossible for Tour players to avoid dreaded questions about You-Know-Who these days. Like most everyone, Jim Furyk can only speculate on when Tiger will return to competition. But if the well-spoken, pensive Furyk had to be a betting man, he would put his money on The Masters:

I’d bet we’d see him at Augusta. Tiger hasn’t come out and made any real public statements, so it’s hard to figure out. Everyone is guessing it will be Augusta. Whether he comes out earlier, or there, I have no idea.

Which reiterates what most others have surmised, including the eloquent Geoff Ogilvy, who last week offered some intelligent advice for Tiger. Obviously both are just speculating, but coming from them, at least they’re educated opinions.

Rather astonishingly, Furyk candidly remarked that when Tiger does return, he should expect to be met with “mixed feelings” from fellow players:

There will be people who probably won’t be as friendly and people who are. Tiger probably understands that and realizes that the people who he considers his friends will pat him on the back and encourage him. It’s been a real life-changing experience. I’m sure you’ve seen it with friends and I’ve seen it with friends. Some people take sides. He probably expects some people to be pretty cold about it and some will support him and give him encouragement.

Mean Girls on the PGA Tour! Well, as we heard earlier today, Tiger can count on his pal Phil Mickelson to welcome him back with open arms — which surely Tiger must find totally reassuring.

[Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images]

And as far as the question concerning the rematch, never again. (Laughter) I would like to stay as the guy who won over Tiger at the PGA Championship, and that’s about it. No redos. (Laughter) —Y.E. Yang, post-win presser, August 16, ‘09

Unfortunately for Yang, Freddie and the former Mr. Evert had a better idea. And a well known golf blogger and I had the same one — on Thursday we decided it would be the best thing in the world if Yang and Tiger played each other in Sunday’s single matches.

I hope we get to see Yang hit another 3-hybrid like this. (Go for broke!) And when he takes down Tiger, he should totally hoist his bag over his head again — even if a chance for an International team victory is futile.

Thank you, captains.

******

The Americans currently lead the Internationals 12.5 to 9.5. Here’s the complete lineup:

International vs. US (matches begin at approximately noon EST in ten-minute intervals)

Camilo Villegas vs. Hunter Mahan — Grade: C-

Adam Scott vs. Stewart Cink — C+

Mike Weir vs. Justin Leonard — B

Robert Allenby vs. Anthony Kim — B

Geoff Ogilvy vs. Steve Stricker — A-

Ernie Els vs. Sean O’Hair — B+

Ryo Ishikawa vs. Kenny Perry — A+

Tim Clark vs. Zach Johnson — D

Y.E. Yang vs. Tiger Woods (!!!) — A+

Vijay Singh vs. Lucas Glover — F-

Retief Goosen vs. Phil Mickelson — B

Angel Cabrera vs. Jim Furyk — C+

[Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images]

…AK is just not into you.

Captain Couples was so excited about AK and Jim Furyk winning two-up over Adam Scott and Angel Cabrera that he attempted to get to first base with a grossed-out Anthony Kim.

The Presidents Cup matches at Harding Park in San Francisco begin tomorrow. Here are the pairings for Thursday’s foursomes:

International vs. US.

Tim Clark and Mike Weir vs. Anthony Kim and Phil Mickelson

Adam Scott and Ernie Els vs. Hunter Mahan and Sean O’Hair

Vijay Singh and Robert Allenby vs. Lucas Glover and Stewart Cink

Angel Cabrera and Camilo Villegas vs. Kenny Perry and Zach Johnson

Geoff Ogilvy and Ryo Ishikawa vs. Tiger Woods and Steve Stricker

Retief Goosen and Y.E. Yang vs. Jim Furyk and Justin Leonard

My favorite is Ogilvy/Ishikawa vs. Woods/Stricker — the Americans have the advantage with the world’s number one and two playing together. Plus, they’re BFFs! It will definitely be interesting to see how the 18-year-old Ishikawa, who just won his fourth tournament on the Japanese Tour, perform. With the format being alternate shot, Tiger’s and Stricker’s games balance each other. And lucky for Strick, the rough isn’t too thick. So, if Tiger is hitting errant drives, it won’t be a huge travesty. Ogilvy and Ryo better bring their A-game to stand a chance.

I also love Cabrera/Villegas vs. Perry/Johnson. Given that Angel doesn’t speak English, it’s probably smart Norman paired him with Camilo because, you know, communicating with your teammate is important.

And then there’s Scott/Els vs. Mahan/O’Hair. Everyone will be watching how Adam Scott plays. At least he’s paired with Ernie, who has been playing pretty well lately. Good news is that none of the four are good putters. Oh, apparently Ernie requested to play with Scott:

Yeah, I think Scotty wanted to play with me. I really enjoy Scotty. I think he’s one of the great talents of the game. He’s had a very tough year. So mentally, I want to help him, and you know, if he can get over the little stumbling block that he’s had it will be great for his career.

What a generous, helpful friend! No, seriously. Let’s hope Scott can regain his confidence this week.

Now that I’ve shared my super-insightful thoughts, it’s your turn. By the way, Mike Walker will be live-blogging the matches over at Press Tent tomorrow — stop by for his Beavis & Butthead commentary on the action.

[Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images]

It’s finally here: The sprint to the finish of the oh-so-riveting-and-prestigious FedEx Cup playoffs is set to go at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. 30 players are vying for the oversized $10 million purse. After the first leg, I thought the FEC really sucked and after the second, I said it was getting kinda interesting. On the eve of the Tour Championship, we might return to suck.

Perhaps the format is the best it’s been in its three-year history — the Tour rectified some of the flaws in the system for this year’s edition to heighten the intrigue and create more volatility. Has it achieved that, though? The points have been reset, but the standings haven’t. The top 5 players have a huge advantage and are the only ones with a solid chance. And those would be (in order of their standing) Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson and Heath Slocum.

The Tour has emphasized that everyone has a mathematical shot, but really, it’s a sham. John Senden, who is in 30th place, can take the Cup if he wins and Tiger finishes last. And the chances of that happening are…slim to none. Sure, that appears to be somewhat the Tour’s intention — to reward consistent play throughout the entire season with more emphasis on those who finish strong in the playoff events.

That’s also flawed. Two words: Heath Slocum. He entered The Barclays, the first leg, ranked 124th, and after winning, he moved to 3rd. So there’s the volatility. But after missing the cut at the Deutsche Bank Championship and finishing a mediocre T38 at the BMW Championship, he’s still in 5th place! Shouldn’t he also be “punished” for that? And not just by moving down two spots.

There are some other guys that got hot during the playoffs, like John Senden, Marc Leishman and Jason Dufner. They stepped it up when it mattered — it’s comparable to a scenario in the NBA playoffs when the team with one of the worst records upsets the one with the best. Fair enough.

But shouldn’t the Tour Championship also include the players that performed consistently or won in the regular season? Off the top of my head, there’s Ian Poulter, Camilo Villegas, Charley Hoffman (who at one point made a gazillion cuts in a row), Rory Sabbatini, Anthony Kim, Ryan Moore and Tim Clark aren’t in the field. Sure, perhaps they didn’t perform so great in the FEC, but the Tour’s finale should showcase all of the year’s best players.

And if for some reason Tiger plays like total garbage and doesn’t win the Cup, it would totally make sense. Right. He won 6 times, including one of the playoff events.

Though the powers-that-be have shoved the excitement and significance of the FEC and perfectly logical points system down everyone’s throats (I mean, have you seen the commercials?), the playoffs are still completely contrived. The Tour Championship is an important tournament, but the extra crap is unnecessary. The only way to fix it is to enter the finale with a clean slate (no one gets the points anyway) and make it stroke play. Or to make it match play. But the latter would never happen, because God forbid, Tiger is ousted in his first match. Then, people would care even less and TV ratings would plummet and we’re back to exactly what this is — a mediocre tournament to get people to watch golf after the PGA Championship.

All that said, the playoffs aren’t about what’s better for golf. Let’s be real, it’s just about one thing: money.

I ripped into the FedEx Cup last week. Perhaps I was being a bit unfair and it was premature to predict how the changes the PGA Tour made to the system would play out. While I’m still not a huge fan, I’ve reassessed and the format isn’t that terrible. After the Deutsche Bank Championship, it now appears the playoffs are intriguing for both fans and players. Finally.

Another Look at How It Works

The changes the Tour imposed were meant to reward players for consistent play in the regular season and put more significance to their performance in FedEx Cup events. Well, it’s actually working (shocking) somewhat now. We’re seeing how many spots players can move up if they finish well and how it doesn’t affect others much if they’ve played pretty well all year.

Steve Stricker won the Deutsche Bank Championship, the second “round” of the FedEx Cup. As a result, he moved to first place in the points standings, dethroning Tiger Woods, who held the lead for most of the season. So, it’s not going to be so easy for Tiger to win the whole thing.

Stricker has been playing solid with three wins and ten top-10 finishes. More important, he placed second and first in the past two weeks — he’s stepped up when it matters, which is the whole idea of playoffs.

But I find it absurd that Heath Slocum is still ranked third in the standings. I mean, seriously, he didn’t even make the cut this week! Not to mention Jim Furyk is only in 18th. He has made 18 of 20 cuts and has eight top-ten finishes.

What Made the Deutsche Bank Championship Compelling

First of all, the players like the venue, TPC Boston. The tournament was focused on the actual golf instead of the (poor) course design and for that matter, the awe-inspiring views.

Tiger made one of his Sunday-come-from-behind runs, shooting a 8-under 63. Even though he couldn’t complete it, it’s always entertaining and exciting to watch.

Had Jason Dufner or Scott Verplank won instead of Stricker, it would have been another ho-hum outcome (a la The Barclays, but a playoff between them would have made it OK). Stricker birdied the last two holes for the win, no less. (I was at the tournament and watched him play the 17th — he made a great clutch putt. He had that look in his eye that said, “I’ve got this. I will win.”)

Overall, the leaderboard was interesting. It was filled with big names, a few of which we hadn’t seen up there in a while, like Angel Cabrera, Geoff Ogilvy, Sean O’Hair and Retief Goosen.

Why We Care Now

With two events remaining, Tiger is no longer the points leader. And, well, we know how he feels about second place.  It’s doubtful he thinks of these tournament as anything “special” per se, but fact of the matter is that he cares about winning. Regardless of how he feels about the FedEx Cup, there’s still something on the line to lose (not money, duh). He’s shown a new level of frustration over the past two weeks — to say the least — and he hasn’t been hiding it well (5-hop clubthrow into the bushes in the first round).

Needless to say, Tiger is fired up and looking for redemption, and let’s face it — when that happens, it always make things more engaging. And, it likely won’t be him running away from the field. He’s up against Stricker, a very worthy opponent, who has shown that he will be tough to beat. Even better.

The FedEx Cup has my attention. For now.

[Photo by Michael Cohen/Getty Images]