Hurrah for mathematics! Hurrah!
I’ll be returning to the question of the FedEx Cup format – and the PGA Tour’s decision to use the event’s convoluted ranking system as the measure by which it will determine playing eligibility from 2014 – in the coming days, as pre-tournament preparations at East Lake begin to gather momentum.
In the meantime, however, you can entertain yourselves with this: a breakdown of what each Tour Championship qualifier needs to either do, avoid doing or rely on happening in order to end the regular season $10million wealthier.
It’s worth stressing, I think, that the following numbers were crunched at PGA Tour HQ (presumably by a team of NASA game theorists) and distributed to the press corps but yesterday afternoon.
You see, I’ve decided to stage a mini-protest and abstain from all weighing of permutations and forecasting of outcomes. Yes, it might prove a pointless, even counterproductive, gesture, but come Sunday evening, the FedEx Cup champion and I will share something in common: we’ll both be entirely unable to explain quite how he came to be holding a giant cheque for $10million.
I’m banking on that yielding a priceless nugget of psychological insight. (Feel free to take notes, students of journalism.)
Ahem:
No. 1 Rory McIlroy
· If he wins the TOUR Championship, he wins the FedExCup
· Has a reasonable chance of winning with a top-five finish
· Can finish as low as 29th and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 2 Tiger Woods
· If he wins the TOUR Championship, he wins the FedExCup
· Has a reasonable chance of winning with a top-3 finish
· Can finish as low as sixth and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 3 Nick Watney
· If he wins the TOUR Championship, he wins the FedExCup
· Has a reasonable chance of winning with a second-place finish
· Can finish as low as fourth and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 4 Phil Mickelson
· If he wins the TOUR Championship, he wins the FedExCup
· Has a reasonable chance of winning with a second-place finish
· Can finish as low as third and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 5 Brandt Snedeker
· If he wins the TOUR Championship, he wins the FedExCup
· Can finish second and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 6 Louis Oosthuizen
· Must win the TOUR Championship AND Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish third or worse
· Can finish second and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 7 Dustin Johnson
· Must win the TOUR Championship AND Rory McIlory (No. 1) and Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish third
or worse
No. 8 Lee Westwood
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish third or worse*; Tiger Woods
(No. 2) must finish third or worse; and Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes second or worse.*
No. 9 Zach Johnson
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish fourth or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) and Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish third or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish second or worse*
No. 10 Jason Dufner
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish fifth or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fourth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish third or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish third or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) must finish second or worse*
No. 11 Bubba Watson
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish seventh or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse
· Nick Wateny (No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish third or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) must finish third or worse
No. 12 Sergio Garcia
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish seventh or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) and Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) must finish third or worse
No. 13 Steve Stricker
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish eighth or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse
· Nick Watney No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) and Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) must finish third or worse
No. 14 Keegan Bradley
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish ninth or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) and Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) must finish third or worse
No. 15 Luke Donald
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish ninth or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) and Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) must finish third or worse
· Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish second or worse
No. 16 Matt Kuchar
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 10th or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4), Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 17 Carl Pettersson
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 11th or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4), Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 18 Jim Furyk
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 12th or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4), Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 19 Bo Van Pelt
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 13th or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4), Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 20 Robert Garrigus
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 13th or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4), Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 21 Adam Scott
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 13th or worse*
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish fifth or worse*
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fourth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4)*, Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or
worse
No. 22 Ernie Els
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 14th or worse
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish sixth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) and Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish fourth or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 23 Hunter Mahan
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 15th or worse*
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish sixth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) and Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish fourth or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 24 Justin Rose
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 17th or worse*
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish sixth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) and Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish fourth or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 25 Webb Simpson
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 19th or worse*
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish sixth or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) and Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish fourth or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 26 John Huh
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 21th or worse*
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish sixth or worse*
· Nick Watney (No. 3)* and Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish fourth or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 27 Rickie Fowler
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 23th or worse*
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish seventh or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fifth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish fourth or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 28 Ryan Moore
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 25th or worse*
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish seventh or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fifth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish fourth or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 29 John Senden
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 27th or worse*
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish seventh or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fifth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish fourth or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
No. 30 Scott Piercy
· Must win the TOUR Championship, AND
· Rory McIlroy (No. 1) must finish 29th or worse*
· Tiger Woods (No. 2) must finish seventh or worse
· Nick Watney (No. 3) must finish fifth or worse
· Phil Mickelson (No. 4) must finish fourth or worse
· Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) and Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) must finish third or worse
Clear?
If, like me, you occasionally suffer from exam-related nightmares, it might be wise to avoid dwelling on the above.
Conor Nagle
To be fair, the points allocation for the fed ex cup is no more or less arbitrary than the money values assigned to each spot, and playing privileges aren’t impacted by what happens at East Lake after the reset. Really, I think the use of whiteboards makes it appear more convoluted than it really is: based on where you finish you get points – Rory has the most points heading in, person with the most points at the end wins.
Conor is useful….the Rory article was your best stuff yet..;keep it going!!!
It’s not even remotely hard nor convoluted. Why does everyone except Shoshana have to pretend that it is?
30Guys & 1 cup? Ick…
This FedEx Cup has very little entertainment value for me. I care 100 times more about who wins the final event, than who wins this bonus pool. It’s just nice that the best players in the world get together a lot more often than they used to.
I’m hoping Phil wins – but I think Rory will take it
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