Sep
25
2012
Odds, shmodds favor home victory
By Conor Nagle under Ryder Cup

U-S-A! U-S-A!

 

While your brains are still limber from last week’s FedEx Cup workout, I thought I’d post another selection of probabilities and forecasts, this time courtesy of an overseas-based bookmaker Bovada.

The golf market is, of course, notoriously volatile, but pre-tournament odds function as a useful, if slightly oblique, gauge of public opinion.

Given how finely balanced this year’s exhibition appears to be, what follows is less revelatory than hmm-worthy (as in, deserving of quiet, beard-stroking contemplation).

Odds on winning the 2012 Ryder Cup

USA     -140 (5/7)

Europe     +120 (6/5)

To hit opening American tee shot

Most likely: Tiger Woods, 4/1

Least likely: Bubba Watson, 16/1

To hit opening European tee shot

Most likely: Rory McIlroy, 7/2

Least likely: Peter Hanson, Nicolas Colsaerts 28/1

Top American points scorer

Lowest: Tiger Woods, 5/1

Highest: Jason Dufner, Zach Johnson, 14/1

Top European points scorer

Lowest: Rory McIlroy, 5/1

Highest: Paul Lawrie, 25/1

Top Debutant

Jason Dufner, 11/4

Webb Simpson, 11/4

Keegan Bradley, 3/1

Brandt Snedeker, 7/2

Nicolas Colsaerts, 11/2

Zach Johnson’s ludicrous undervaluation in the “Top American points scorer” market certainly catches they eye.

Conor Nagle

*Update: Just for kicks, I’m adding all the “odds and ends” in this email I received from Bovada via Jimmy Shapiro. Basically, you can place a bet on every possible stat or situation in the Ryder Cup — it’s kind of fun and interesting to check out. Plus, if you’re a golf fan, you’re probably a golfer, which means by default, you’re a massive gambler. –S. Wei

Top American Points Scorer  
Tiger Woods                  5/1
Steve Stricker                8/1
Phil Mickelson               8/1
Dustin Johnson              9/1
Jim Furyk                      11/1
Matt Kuchar                  10/1
Bubba Watson               10/1
Keegan Bradley             12/1
Webb Simpson              12/1
Brandt Snedeker            12/1
Jason Dufner                 14/1
Zach Johnson                14/1

Top Combined Points Scorer 
Tiger Woods                  8/1
Rory Mcilroy                  10/1
Lee Westwood               14/1
Luke Donald                  14/1
Dustin Johnson              14/1
Ian Poulter                     14/1
Steve Stricker                16/1
Graeme McDowell          16/1
Matt Kuchar                  16/1
Phil Mickelson               16/1
Sergio Garcia                16/1
Justin Rose                   16/1
Jason Dufner                 20/1
Keegan Bradley             20/1
Webb Simpson              20/1
Bubba Watson               20/1
Zach Johnson                22/1
Jim Furyk                      22/1
Francesco Molinari         33/1
Nicolas Colsaerts           33/1
Brandt Snedeker            33/1
Martin Kaymer               33/1
Peter Hanson                50/1
Paul Lawrie                   50/1

Correct Score
USA 14 5 – 13 5 Europe              9/1
USA 15 – 13 Europe                   10/1
USA 15 5 – 12 5 Europe              11/1
USA 16 – 12 Europe                   12/1
USA 16 5 – 11 5 Europe              18/1
USA 17 – 11 Europe                   20/1
USA 17 5 – 10 5 Europe              25/1
USA 18 – 10 Europe                   28/1
USA 18 5 – 9 5 Europe               40/1
USA 19 – 9 Europe                     50/1
USA 19 5 – 8 5 Europe               80/1
USA 20 – 8 Europe                     100/1
USA 20 5 – 7 5 Europe               150/1
USA 21 – 7 Europe                     200/1
USA 21 5 – 6 5 Europe               250/1
USA 22 – 6 Europe                     300/1
Tie 14 – 14                                 10/1
Europe 14 5 – 13 5 USA              10/1
Europe 15 – 13 USA                   11/1
Europe 15 5 – 12 5 USA              12/1
Europe 16 – 12 USA                   14/1
Europe 16 5 – 11 5 USA              16/1
Europe 17 – 11 USA                   25/1
Europe 17 5 – 10 5 USA              33/1
Europe 18 – 10 USA                   50/1
Europe 18 5 – 9 5 USA               80/1
Europe 19 – 9 USA                     100/1
Europe 19 5 – 8 5 USA               125/1
Europe 20 – 8 USA                     150/1
Europe 20 5 – 7 5 USA               200/1
Europe 21 – 7 USA                     300/1
Europe 21 5 – 6 5 USA               400/1
Europe 22 – 6 USA                     500/1

Woods v McIIroy – Most Points           
Tiger Woods                  +110     (11/10)
Rory Mcilroy                  +125     (5/4)
Tie                                +400     (4/1)

Who Will Hole The Winning Putt?     
Tiger Woods                  12/1
Bubba Watson               14/1
Phil Mickelson               14/1
Jason Dufner                 14/1
Rory Mcilroy                  16/1
Graeme McDowell          16/1
Dustin Johnson              16/1
Lee Westwood               16/1
Ian Poulter                     16/1
Steve Stricker                16/1
Jim Furyk                      18/1
Luke Donald                  18/1
Keegan Bradley             20/1
Webb Simpson              20/1
Zach Johnson                20/1
Sergio Garcia                20/1
Justin Rose                   22/1
Matt Kuchar                  22/1
Brandt Snedeker            22/1
Francesco Molinari         25/1
Peter Hanson                28/1
Nicolas Colsaerts           28/1
Martin Kaymer               28/1
Paul Lawrie                   28/1

Top Debutant 
Jason Dufner                 11/4
Webb Simpson              11/4
Keegan Bradley             3/1
Brandt Snedeker            7/2
Nicolas Colsaerts           11/2

Top European Wildcard         
Ian Poulter                     4/11
Nicolas Colsaerts           2/1

Top American Wildcard         
Steve Stricker                15/8
Dustin Johnson              2/1
Jim Furyk                      12/5
Brandt Snedeker            10/3

Top Wildcard  
Steve Stricker                11/4
Dustin Johnson              3/1
Jim Furyk                      10/3
Ian Poulter                     7/2
Brandt Snedeker            5/1
Nicolas Colsaerts           15/2

Top American Rookie
Jason Dufner                 5/2
Keegan Bradley             5/2
Webb Simpson              11/4
Brandt Snedeker            3/1

Biggest Winning Margin        
10 And 8           400/1
9 And 8             200/1
9 And 7             100/1
8 And 7             16/1
8 And 6             22/1
7 And 6             7/1
7 And 5             10/1
6 And 5             3/1
6 And 4             7/2
5 And 4             11/4
5 And 3             9/1
4 And 3             14/1
4 And 2             40/1
3 And 2             100/1
3 And 1             250/1
2 And 1             500/1
2up                   1000/1
1up                   2000/1

Total Points by Golfer
Tiger Woods  
0-1.5 points                   4/1
2-3 points                      1/1
3.5 or more points          11/8

Tiger Woods
No Points                      16/1

Tiger Woods  
5 Points                        16/1

Rory McIlroy  
0-1.5 points                   10/3
2-3 points                      11/10
3.5 or more points          7/5

Rory McIlroy  
No Points                      16/1

Rory McIlroy  
5 Points                        16/1

Sergio Garcia
0-1.5 points                   5/2
2-3 points                      11/10
3.5 or more points          7/4

Luke Donald  
0-1.5 points                   11/4
2-3 points                      11/10
3.5 or more points          13/8

Lee Westwood
0-1.5 points                   5/2
2-3 points                      11/10
3.5 or more points          7/4

Graeme McDowell     
0-1.5 points                   2/1
2-3 points                      11/10
3.5 or more points          9/4

Ian Poulter     
0-1.5 points                   5/2
2-3 points                      11/10
3.5 or more points          7/4

Justin Rose    
0-1.5 points                   2/1
2-3 points                      11/10
3.5 or more points          9/4

Steve Stricker
0-1.5 points                   15/8
2-3 points                      11/10
3.5 or more points          12/5

Phil Mickelson
0-1.5 points                   2/1
2-3 points                      11/10
3.5 or more points          9/4

Dustin Johnson          
0-1.5 points                   5/2
2-3 points                      11/10
3.5 or more points          15/8

Matt Kuchar   
0-1.5 points                   6/5
2-3 points                      1/1
3.5 or more points          5/1

Bubba Watson
0-1.5 points                   15/8
2-3 points                      6/5
3.5 or more points          9/4

Jim Furyk       
0-1.5 points                   7/5
2-3 points                      1/1
3.5 or more points          4/1

Brandt Snedeker       
0-1.5 points                   5/4
2 points or more             4/7

Zach Johnson
0-1.5 points                   11/10
2 points or more             2/3

Jason Dufner  
0-1.5 points                   1/1
2 point or more              8/11

Webb Simpson          
0-1.5 points                   5/4
2 points or more             /7

Keegan Bradley 
0-1.5 points                   1/1
2 points or more             8/11

Paul Lawrie   
0-1.5 points                   1/2
2 points or more             3/2

Francesco Molinari    
0-1.5 points                   2/3
2 points or more             11/10

Martin Kaymer
0-1.5 points                   2/3
2 points or more             11/10

Nicolas Colsaerts       
0-1.5 points                   8/13
2 points or more             6/5

Peter Hanson 
0-1.5 points                   4/7
2 points or more             5/4

Day 1 Foursomes
Day 1 Foursomes Correct Score     
United States 2.5 – 1.5 Europe                9/2
United States 3 – 1 Europe                      10/3
United States 3.5 – 0.5 Europe                16/1
United States 4 – 0 Europe                      14/1
United States 2 – 2 Europe                      5/2
Europe 2.5 – 1.5 United States                6/1
Europe 3 – 1 United States                      9/2
Europe 3.5 – 0.5 United States                25/1
Europe 4 – 0 United States                      25/1

Day 1 Foursomes Winner       
USA                 6/5
Europe              15/8
Draw                 5/2

Day 1 Fourballs Winner  
USA                 6/5
Europe              13/8
Tie                    11/4

Who Will Win The Day 1 Foursomes With Handicap?
USA (-1)                        13/5
Tie                                5/1
Europe (+1)                   1/2

Who Will Win Day 1 Fourballs With Handicap?      
USA (-1)                        12/5
Tie                                9/4
Europe (+1)                   4/7

Day 1 USA Total Points    
0 – 3 Points                   9/4
3.5 – 4.5 Points              6/5
5 Points Or More           7/4

Day 1 Europe Total Points     
0 – 3 Points                   7/4
3.5 – 4.5 Points              6/5
5 Points Or More           9/4

Day 1 Fourballs Correct Score      
USA 2.5-1.5                  9/2
USA 3.5-0.5                  16/1
USA 3-1                        4/1
USA 4-0                        18/1
Tie 2-2                          5/2
Europe 2.5-1.5               5/1
Europe 3.5-0.5               16/1
Europe 3-1                    9/2
Europe 4-0                    22/1

Day 1 Correct Score   
USA 4.5-3.5                  5/1
USA 5.5-2.5                  8/1
USA 5-3                        5/1
USA 6.5-1.5                  25/1
USA 6-2                        9/1
USA 7.5-0.5                  125/1
USA 7-1                        40/1
USA 8-0                        200/1
Tie                                5/1
Europe 4.5-3.5               6/1
Europe 5.5-2.5               14/1
Europe 5-3                    13/2
Europe 6.5-1.5               50/1
Europe 6-2                    18/1
Europe 7.5-0.5               150/1
Europe 7-1                    80/1
Europe 8-0                    250/1

Top European Players by Country
Top Englishman Player        
Luke Donald                  9/4
Ian Poulter                     5/2
Lee Westwood               5/2
Justin Rose                   3/1

Top Irish Player    
Rory Mcilroy                  1/2
Graeme McDowell          3/2

Hole in One
Hole in One by Day   
Day 1                10/1
Day 2                10/1
Day 3                10/1

Will there be a Hole in One? 
Yes                  4/1
No                    1/7